This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.